Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
A mere 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.